Hillary’s campaign is not quite finished, but it’s close. If she had any serious competition, there really wouldn’t be much of a question about her viability as a candidate.
As we learn more about just how deep Hillary’s email scandal deepens, here’s three reasons conservatives can safely say that her campaign is absolutely finished.
Her Support Dropped 20 Points in 2 Months
Take a look at this chart:
It is worth noting that at this early stage of the election process, polls are not really a good future indicator of what’s going to happen. Plus, even with Clinton’s precipitous drop in the polls she still leads Biden and Sanders by a significant margin.
But what is notable in this poll (besides the huge drop off in her support) is that the cause for her drop in support is largely due to democrats looking (hoping?) for another viable candidate. Clinton lost 21 percentage points while Biden and Sanders picked up 19 percentage points and essentially split that pickup between themselves.
Considering that Joe Biden hasn’t actually declared (and now would be a very good time for him to jump in the race), Hillary looks extremely vulnerable from a polling standpoint.
Joe Biden may not jump into the race, but what about John Kerry, Al Gore, or any other warm body? Do not be surprised if Hillary finds a new candidate vying for the nomination within the next two months.
Hillary’s Falling Support Among Women
One of Hillary’s strongest cases for the presidency is her historically strong support among women. But even this is on the strong downward trend.
Once again, Hillary’s loss in support is mostly Bernie Sander’s gain. What is important to note here, though, is that even Hillary’s most loyal constituency is crumbling.
Conventional wisdom has held that she would be virtually bullet-proof among a vast number of women who fervently want the first African-American president to be succeeded by the first female president. Just as important, Clinton has devoted much of her professional life to championing the causes of women and children.
In a country where women’s pay remains grossly unequal and big corporations are still horribly slow in appointing more women to boards, she is widely seen as the best hope for breaking up the old boys’ network.
Yet, in an odd political season, here is one of the greatest oddities: According to an array of national polls over the past month, many women voters have been drifting away from Hillary. In June, for example, a Wall Street Journal/NBC poll found that 51% of white women voters who have at least a college degree had a favorable view of Hillary, while only 38% were negative.
The same poll a month later found those numbers reversed: 47% negative, 43% positive. Among all voters, her favorability now stands at the lowest point in 14 years, even lower than in her struggles in the 2008 campaign.
When a candidate loses support among their most faithful followers, it is close to impossible to recover.
The Scandals Have Just Begun
The worst news for Hillary Clinton is that she isn’t anywhere near the end of her scandals. First, her email scandal is about to deepen significantly as a tech company announced today that she never deleted 31,000 emails that were previously thought to be destroyed. Evidently she really doesn’t know how to use a computer.
Second, even if the email scandal does eventually go away, she needs to address Benghazi, her failed “Reset Button” with Russia, her support of a hands off insurgency in Syria which has lead to a massive refugee crisis, and a number of other questionable decisions as secretary of state.
The Atlantic, not exactly a conservative bastion of commentary, explains Hillary’s problem:
The email controversy is turning into a classic Clinton scandal. Her use of a private email account became known during the course of an investigation into the 2012 deaths of U.S. personnel in Benghazi, Libya. Thus far, the investigations have found no wrongdoing on her part with respect to Benghazi, but Clinton’s private-email use and now the referral concerning classified information have become stories unto themselves. This is something of a pattern with the Clinton family, which has been in the public spotlight since Bill Clinton’s first run for office, in 1974: Something that appears potentially scandalous on its face turns out to be innocuous, but an investigation into it reveals other questionable behavior. The classic case is Whitewater, a failed real-estate investment Bill and Hillary Clinton made in 1978. While no inquiry ever produced evidence of wrongdoing, investigations ultimately led to President Clinton’s impeachment for perjury and obstruction of justice.
With Hillary Clinton leading the field for the Democratic nomination for president, every Clinton scandal—from Whitewater to the State Department emails—will be under the microscope. (No other American politicians—even ones as corrupt as Richard Nixon, or as hated by partisans as George W. Bush—have fostered the creation of a permanent multimillion-dollar cottage industry devoted to attacking them.) Keeping track of each controversy, where it came from, and how serious it is, is no small task, so here’s a primer. We’ll update it as new information emerges.
Why Hillary Will Win
Despite these reasons, Hillary should still be considered the presumptive nominee for the Democrats simply because she has no serious challengers.
Sure, there’s Bernie Sanders, but polling well this early in the election cycle is much different than turning out voters to caucuses and primaries. Bernie Sanders is your classic candidate who joins the race knowing that he’ll never win the nomination, but that he’ll have a voice for a year or more to build up his personal brand and influence thousands of Americans.
Maybe Joe Biden will enter the race. If he does, Clinton will have a harder challenge, but so will Biden as he lacks campaign infrastructure in order to properly turn out primary voters.
The same holds true for John Kerry or Al Gore. It’s simply getting too late in the race to feasibly enter the race.
So despite her significant weaknesses, Hillary Clinton should still be considered the hands down favorite to win the nomination. That’s good news for conservatives who could roll out just about any candidate and have a strong chance to expose Hillary for the dishonest, scandal-ridden politician that she is.